Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 20.141961 21.940300 23.932780 26.325811 29.151841 32.422287 36.553451
2024-11-03 17.367028 19.703345 22.486316 26.122304 30.872435 37.067347 46.143616
2024-11-10 15.614570 18.249637 21.563955 26.194392 32.788374 42.399285 58.835541
2024-11-17 14.382008 17.202427 20.906766 26.379546 34.790782 48.428196 75.983012
2024-11-24 13.416653 16.345971 20.330667 26.501430 36.649724 54.868735 98.988387
2024-12-01 12.528109 15.476223 19.595232 26.214846 37.725110 60.331399 126.002802
2024-12-08 11.873198 14.853623 19.121936 26.226923 39.279477 67.459967 169.653585
2024-12-15 11.255961 14.222685 18.556035 25.979635 40.268382 73.873581 228.277569
2024-12-22 10.715247 13.655266 18.023178 25.697301 41.105886 80.454215 318.243676
2024-12-29 10.254224 13.168727 17.566251 25.475413 42.009969 87.904752 480.717765
2025-01-05 9.858495 12.750875 17.178309 25.319637 43.021485 96.578721 843.076798
2025-01-12 9.418671 12.238622 16.596142 24.727769 42.887550 101.333884 1448.483909
2025-01-19 9.303177 12.219347 16.826188 25.729985 46.966577 127.566970 NaN
2025-01-26 8.981756 11.860651 16.459395 25.508799 47.860540 141.259572 NaN
2025-02-02 8.733112 11.602239 16.243419 25.567013 49.566408 162.959646 NaN
2025-02-09 8.522041 11.391219 16.092277 25.739891 51.688853 193.277426 NaN
2025-02-16 8.318069 11.180157 15.924509 25.854710 53.704272 230.694772 NaN
2025-02-23 8.073165 10.890571 15.597018 25.578874 54.389770 259.919798 NaN
2025-03-02 7.884845 10.684662 15.406862 25.590069 56.091360 312.674245 NaN
2025-03-09 7.675870 10.435403 15.122144 25.352621 56.857420 361.056788 NaN
2025-03-16 7.475671 10.192580 14.835539 25.081567 57.443756 416.625961 NaN
2025-03-23 7.294791 9.974946 14.583844 24.868512 58.219392 493.285749 NaN
2025-03-30 7.132147 9.781684 14.367344 24.718916 59.234235 606.161479 NaN